Stocks fell Friday, adding to their weekly declines, as oil prices spiked and traders reacted to an unexpected drop in new U.S. jobs data.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 488 points, or 1%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were down 1% each.
West Texas Intermediate broke above $90 per barrel and ended the week with a 35% gain — its biggest since oil futures trading began in 1983 — as investors weighed the impact of the U.S.-Iran war on global energy supply. Oil surged Friday after President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post that there won’t be a deal to end the U.S.-Iran war without an “unconditional surrender” from the Middle Eastern country.
Qatar’s energy minister, Saad al-Kaabi, told The Financial Times that Gulf energy producers may need to call force majeure in the coming days, shutting down production in a move that could send oil to $150 a barrel. The conflict in the Middle East could “bring down the economies of the world,” he warned.
“If this war continues for a few weeks, GDP growth around the world will be impacted,” the energy minister said. “Everybody’s energy price is going to go higher. There will be shortages of some products and there will be a chain reaction of factories that cannot supply.”
The bands between the high-end and the low-end of oil prices “have widened out significantly,” according to Jed Ellerbroek, portfolio manager at Argent Capital Management. Even if you haircut al-Kaabi’s projection by 20%, prices are still at levels that are “scary as hell,” he added.
“If I’m a trader … I’m not real pumped about owning a bunch of economically sensitive stocks through a weekend at war with Iran, with President Trump’s volatility and unpredictability,” Ellerbroek said. “I think the longer this goes on, the more it will seep into stock market behavior.”
Shares of Royal Caribbean, which has fallen 11% this week amid increasing fuel costs, fell again on Friday, dropping 1.5%. Caterpillar shares, which have also suffered this week, were down more than 2%.
Equities were also bogged down by the latest jobs data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000 in February, a sharp contrast from the downwardly revised January gain of 126,000 and far below the growth of 50,000 that economists polled by Dow Jones expected for the month. The unemployment rate also rose to 4.4% from 4.3%.
“The headline number was very disappointing and will feed worries that the labor market – despite the strong January jobs report – is softening,” said Tim Holland, chief investment officer at Orion. “With energy prices moving higher of late, we wouldn’t be surprised to hear some talk on Wall Street of stagflation – that toxic 70s mix of slowing growth and rising inflation.”
This week, the S&P 500 is on pace to shed more than 1%, while the 30-stock Dow has fallen 3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq is tracking for a loss of 0.5%.
Gold and silver fall for the week
Gold and silver started March in the red.
Bullion ended Friday up 1.58% at 5,158.7, but it was down 1.7% for the week. It was the metal’s first weekly loss in five.
Silver fell 9.63% in the week, its first weekly loss in four, but ended Friday up 2.59% at 84.311.
Meanwhile, Aluminum jumped 9.75% in the week, its largest weekly gain since January 2023. Aluminum is now up nearly 15% in 2026.
First-quarter Atlanta GDPNow plunges to 2.1% Friday from 3.0% Monday
The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow tracker of estimated first-quarter gross domestic product plunged to an annual rate of 2.1% on Friday, down from 3.0% on Monday.
Projections of January-March real personal consumption expenditures growth falling to 1.8% from 2.8%, and real gross private domestic investment growth slowing to 6.8% from 7.9%, accounted for most of the decline, the regional Fed bank said.
The projection “is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow — the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model,” the bank says.
U.S. will create $20 billion reinsurance program for oil tankers
The U.S. Development Finance Corporation will create a $20 billion reinsurance facility in effort to get oil tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz again.
U.S. crude oil is up more than 12% Friday as some Gulf countries shut down oil production because they cannot export their crude through the Strait.
Materials on pace for worst week in nearly a year
The S&P 500 materials sector is down 7% this week. If that loss holds, it would mark the space’s worst weekly performance since the week ended April 4, when it plunged more than 8%. The worst performers week to date are:
- PPG Industries: Down more than 12%
- Freeport-McMoRan: Down more than 12%
- CRH: Down 11%
- Amcor: Down 11%
- Vulcan Materials: Down 10%
Boeing pops on report of big China airplane order
Boeing shares popped to session highs, up more than 2% after Bloomberg News reported the aerospace maker was in talks with the Chinese government for an order of 500 737 Max jets. CNBC reached out to Boeing for comment.
Target is boasting strong technicals amid its turnaround efforts, Josh Brown says
Target is one of the best buying opportunities in the market right now, according to Josh Brown, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management.
Shares of the retailer have significantly outperformed the broader market this year, gaining about 22%, and are faring decent amid the broader decline in value stocks on Friday. Investors appear to be counting on Target’s turnaround efforts, which involve a new leadership team focused on ramping up store growth and remodels and doubling the size of its retail media network “Roundel” within the next five years.
“The Street has decided things are changing here, at least so far, and that’s why it’s on our radar … And the more you dig into this, you realize there’s something powerful happening with this turnaround,” Brown said Friday on CNBC’s “Halftime Report.” “It’s very straightforward here from a risk management standpoint.”
According to Brown, the share price level on Target between $99 and $100 is the “obvious level of support” for traders to watch. The stock is sitting at a golden cross with short-term momentum behind it, he said, adding that there’s plenty of room overhead given the stock’s all-time high of $175 per share.
Decliners lead advancers 4-1 in latest market rout
Equity markets were under pressure again on Friday, and a look under the surface shows bears are in control intraday.
FactSet data shows that four stocks declined for every one advancer at the New York Stock Exchange. Overall, 2,131 names were lower, while just 518 traded higher.
Stocks making midday moves: Western Alliance Bancorp, CF Industries, United Airlines
Check out the companies making headlines in midday trading:
- Bank stocks — All 101 stocks in the State Street SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) were down Friday as the spread widened between the 2- and 10-year Treasury yield in a move known as a bear steepening that often suggests increased expectations of future inflation. A steeper yield curve can compress banks’ net interest margins, devalue assets, raise credit risk and curb loan demand. Western Alliance Bancorp is down almost 12%, Rocket Companies is off 4% and ServisFirst Bancshares is lower by nearly 5%.
- Fertilizer stocks — Fertilizer stocks rallied once again on Friday, as the companies are likely to benefit from tight supplies and higher prices due to the war with Iran. More than a third of raw materials used in fertilizer travel through the Strait of Hormuz. CF Industries climbed 5%, hitting a fresh 52-week high and putting it on pace for a record close. Week to date, shares have surged about 17%. Intrepid Potash surged 9%, also hitting a 52-week high. Its week-to-date gains are likely to tally almost 17%. Nutrien shares added 2%, but the stock is only up 1% this week.
- United Airlines — Shares tumbled nearly 4% after CEO Scott Kirby said the recent spike in fuel prices since the U.S. and Israel struck Iran last weekend will have a “meaningful” impact on United’s first-quarter results. Shares of Delta Air Lines lost 4% and Southwest Airlines dropped 6%, both falling in sympathy. Cruise operators Norwegian and Carnival also fell about 6% each. U.S. oil futures are up more than 34% on the week, and jet fuel and diesel are petroleum distillates.
U.S. crude oil surpasses $90 per barrel
U.S. crude oil broke $90 per barrel Friday after President Donald Trump demanded unconditional surrender from Iran, raising fears of a prolonged war that will cause a cascading disruption to global oil supplies.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures were last up 11.27% to $90.14 per barrel, while global benchmark Brent was 8.09% higher at $92.32 per barrel. U.S. crude has gained nearly 35% this week, while Brent has advanced nearly 28%.
Financials tumble again. Bank ETF falls below 200-day moving average
Financial stocks are tumbling Friday as the spread widens between the 2- and 10-year Treasury yield in a move known as a bear steepening that often suggests increased expectations of future inflation. A steeper yield curve can compress banks’ net interest margins, devalue assets, raise credit risk and curb loan demand.
Each of the 101 banks in the State Street SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) is lower Friday, and the ETF itself is down 3.6%, led by Western Alliance Bancorp, down 13%, Rocket Companies, off 4% and ServisFirst Bancshares, lower by 5%.
The $1 billion KBE has fallen below its 200-day moving average level of $59.24 for for the first time since November 19, 2025.
Treasury yields rise
Treasury yields pushed higher Friday. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield gained more than 3 basis points to 4.177%. The 30-year Treasury yield rose 2.6 basis points to 4.777%. The 2-year Treasury yield was almost 1 basis point higher, at 3.606%.
The spread between 2-year and the 10-year Treasury widened to 57.1 basis points, which might reflect higher expectations of future inflation.
Stocks open lower
U.S. equities opened Friday’s session in negative territory.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 673 points, or 1.4%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were down 1.2% and 1.4%, respectively.
Gap, Marvell Technology, Exxon Mobil among the stocks making premarket moves
Check out the companies making headlines before the bell:
- Gap — The apparel maker’s stock slid about 8% after Gap reported fourth-quarter earnings of 45 cents per share, just shy of analysts’ forecast of 46 cents a share, per LSEG. Gap’s revenue came in line with expectations at $4.24 billion.
- Marvell Technology — The company, which makes integrated circuits and semiconductor products, saw shares surge 11% on the back of strong quarterly results led by artificial intelligence demand. For its fourth quarter, Marvell reported adjusted earnings of 80 cents per share on revenue of $2.22 billion. Analysts polled by LSEG were expecting earnings of 79 cents per share and revenue of $2.21 billion. Management said Marvell expects its year-over-year revenue growth to increase each quarter in fiscal 2027.
- Oil stocks — The group rose alongside crude prices, as tensions grew overnight around the U.S.-Iran conflict. Exxon Mobil and Chevron each gained more than 1%. Occidental Petroleum climbed 3.3%. U.S. oil and Brent scaled to levels not seen since 2024.
U.S. jobs fall unexpectedly by 92,000 in February
U.S. payrolls fell by 92,000 in February, marking a surprise decline out of the labor market, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected payrolls increased by 50,000 in February as unemployment remained steady at 4.3%.
Why Trump’s plan to have the U.S. Navy escort tankers through the Gulf may not work
President Donald Trump is ready to use the U.S. Navy to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz as the war against Iran rages, but providing safe passage to the volume of traffic that typically passes through the waterway will prove challenging.
U.S. oil prices have surged 28% to above $86 a barrel this week as Iran attacks tankers, effectively bringing ship traffic through the Strait to a standstill. Brent crude is up 22% this week to $89 a barrel.
Global benchmark Brent would shoot above $100 per barrel if the waterway is closed for a prolonged period, Wall Street analysts say. At that level, oil prices could tip the global economy into a recession, they say.
The narrow Strait is the only way for tankers to enter and exit the Persian Gulf. More than 14 million barrels per day of crude passed through the Strait in 2025, about a third of all the oil that is exported by ship worldwide, according to energy consulting firm Kpler.
Oil rally resumes as Brent tops $89 a barrel
Oil prices rose on Friday morning as investors continued to assess the impact of the U.S.-Iran war on global energy markets.
By 7 a.m. ET, global benchmark Brent crude futures added 4.5% to trade at $89.38 a barrel, notching a fresh 52-week high. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were last seen 6.2% higher at $86.04.
On Friday morning, the Financial Times reported that Qatar’s energy minister said the war in the Middle East could see Gulf energy exporters halt oil shipments within days. Saad al-Kaabi told the FT crude prices could reach $150 a barrel in the coming weeks if oil tankers are unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
European stocks open higher as oil prices oscillate
European stock markets opened in positive territory on Friday, as oil prices oscillated.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 rose 0.5% in morning trade, with the German DAX leading with a 0.6% gain and London’s FTSE 100 up 0.2%, as the French CAC 40 added 0.2% and the Italian FTSE Mib notching 0.1%.
For the week, the pan-European Stoxx 600 is on course for a 4.6% loss — its deepest since last April, at the height of market fears about a U.S.-China trade war.
Asia markets mostly rise as investors assess Iran conflict impact on energy supplies
Most Asia-Pacific markets staged a late comeback on Friday, after Wall Street declined on worries over energy supplies.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.62% at 55,620.84, also reversing earlier losses, while the Topix ended 0.39% higher to close at 3,716.93.
South Korea’s Kospi reversed course to finish marginally higher at 5,584.87, after marking its best day since 2008 in the prior session.
In contrast, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 1% to 8,851, dragged by basic materials stocks.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was 1.69% higher as of its last hour of trading, extending gains from Thursday and leading Asian markets, while the mainland Chinese CSI 300 advanced 0.27% to 4,660.44.
India’s Nifty 50 was down 0.69%, while the BSE Sensex fell 0.72% as of 2:42 p.m. local time (03.12 a.m. ET).
Asia markets mixed as oil crosses $80 mark
Markets in Asia were mixed on Friday, after oil prices breached the $80 mark as the Iran conflict continued into a sixth day.
South Korea’s Kospi tumbled once again, falling 1%, after marking its best day since 2008 in the prior session. The small-cap Kosdaq, however, extended gains to rise 1.52%.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 0.24%, reversing earlier losses, while the Topix was marginally down.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was down 1.06%, dragged by basic materials stocks.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was up 1.14%, extending gains from Thursday, while mainland China’s CSI 300 was down 0.4%.
What to expect from Friday’s jobs report
More clues on where the employment picture is headed will come Friday when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its monthly nonfarm payrolls report for February at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect payroll growth of 50,000, following January’s surprisingly high 130,000. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.3%, another sign of that, yes, stable labor market that certainly isn’t going gangbusters but is just strong enough to keep that jobless level steady.
However, the so-called stability may not be all it appears. Most of the payroll gains in 2025 came from health-care-related industries. Without the sector, even the meager 15,000 monthly average gains last year would have evaporated, and this year’s environment looks largely the same to those on the ground.
“One of the things that is very interesting-slash-potentially problematic is that we have almost all the growth happening in this health care and social [assistance]” sectors, said Laura Ullrich, director of economic research at Indeed. “I don’t really see it as balanced or stable if you’re seeing so much growth in just one subsector.
Costco, Marvell Technology among stocks moving Thursday evening
Check out the companies making headlines in after-hours trading:
- Costco Wholesale — Shares of the big-box retailer dipped less than 1% in the after-hours session. Costco reported $4.58 cents per share in earnings on revenue of $69.6 billion in the fiscal second quarter, while analysts polled by LSEG expected $4.56 cents per share in earnings on revenue of $69.29 billion. Membership fees totaled $1.36 billion, reflecting a 13.6% gain year over year.
- Marvell Technology — The company, which makes integrated circuits and semiconductor products, saw shares surge 14% on the back of strong quarterly results led by artificial intelligence demand. For its fourth quarter, Marvell reported adjusted earnings of 80 cents per share on revenue of $2.22 billion. Analysts polled by LSEG were expecting earnings of 79 cents per share and revenue of $2.21 billion. Management said Marvell expects its year-over-year revenue growth to increase each quarter in fiscal 2027.
- Gap — The apparel maker’s stock slid almost 8% after Gap reported fourth-quarter earnings of 45 cents per share, just shy of analysts’ forecast of 46 cents a share, per LSEG. Gap’s revenue came in line with expectations at $4.24 billion.
U.S. stock futures open little changed
Shortly after 6 p.m. ET on Thursday, futures tied to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures each dropped about 0.1%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 33 points, or less than 0.1%.